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A
Sleep-Well
Portfolio
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For those seeking to create a retirement nest egg,
but are not interested
in making a career of investing, or rolling the dice with market
timing,
a portfolio with just two components - an equity index fund and a
ladder
of Treasury notes - will work just fine. It’s what I call a
“sleep
well portfolio.”
The equity fund should use those assets that can remain
invested for
the long haul. The T-note ladder should also be treated as a long
term
investment, though it can serve as a source of emergency funds.
However
your liquidity needs should be kept in a good money market fund.
Index Funds
For the equity index fund, I recommend the Vanguard
Index 500, although
the Vanguard Index Total Market fund is also a good choice. They
are
both
very low cost funds that closely track the S&P500 index and the
broad
market Wilshire 5000 index, respectively. Both offer excellent
diversification
in the U.S. equities market.
An index fund will never be among the top-rated equity
funds, yet if
it is low cost it can be counted on to do better than about two-thirds
of the managed equity funds, on average. If you are concerned
about
accumulating too much of your savings at one fund company, there are
other
broad market index funds available, although most are not as good as
the Vanguard funds.
Why not buy the best performing funds? You have
only to look at
the record to see that the top-rated funds are constantly changing.
Managers
come and go, and even the best ones have off years when they produce
below
market-average returns. With an index fund you never need worry
about
the manager losing his touch or leaving. He makes no judgement
calls,
but simply keeps the fund’s assets allocated in proportion to the
market
capitalization of its component stocks. For this reason index
funds
have a low turnover in stocks, which means low realized (taxable)
capital
gains compared to most managed funds.
Asset Allocation
Equities should be the core investment because that is
where the long
term growth potential lies. Over the years, the annualized total return
on the S&P500 index has averaged about twice as
much
as the return on long-term bonds. That can make a huge difference
for the
buy-and-hold investor.
As a rough guide, equities should comprise about (100
minus your age)
percent of your portfolio. But this really depends on your tolerance
for
the short term volatility of equity prices. Even though only paper
losses
are involved when the market value of your index fund drops, as it
surely
will from time to time, it makes no sense to lose sleep over it. This
is
where the T-note ladder comes in. It will reduce the variability in the
total value of your portfolio, albeit at the expense of lower long term
gains.
Ladder of Treasury Notes
A T-note
ladder is simply a set of
Treasury notes that will mature at roughly equal intervals. It
can be
kept going by rolling over each note as it matures. The notes can
be
bought for as little as $1000. The average maturity of the ladder
could
range from 1 to 2.5 years, depending on whether you are rolling over
2-year or 5-year
notes. The latter will produce somewhat greater income, but its market
value
will be more sensitive to changes in interest rates.
My own
preference is for 2-year notes because the
earnings are usually more than 90 percent of the 5-year notes, with
less than
half the average maturity. That makes it possible to change your
asset
mix more frequently and at lower cost if conditions warrant.
T-Note Ladder vs Bond Fund
Why not use a medium term bond fund instead of a T-note
ladder?
There are two good reasons. One is that the T-note ladder is
expense-free
if you buy through the Treasury Direct plan, while bond funds typically
have expenses that can consume 10 percent or more of the earnings. The
other is that a bond fund has no date-certain market value. Its
value
is constantly fluctuating with interest rates. Thus it may not
provide
the counterbalance for the volatility in your equity fund that you were
seeking.
While it is true that a bond fund is easier to manage,
the Treasury
Direct program is very easy to use. You can now buy any new
Treasury
security over the Internet after you have set up an account. A
link
to the Treasury Direct website is given in "How to Buy Treasury
Securities"
under Background
Information.
Diversification
This two-component portfolio will not maximize
your reward/risk
ratio. Further diversification, for example into international
funds,
might improve the performance. There are many international
regional
index funds that attempt to track benchmarks for their regions, much
like
the S&P500 index funds track the stock prices of major companies in
the U.S. However adding such diversification does require more
effort
in terms of monitoring international developments. In my opinion
the potential rewards are likely to be small and not worth the effort
for
many investors.
No Middle Men
The one real problem with the “sleep well portfolio” is
that it’s boring.
There is no need for an investment adviser, no brokers to deal with, no
mutual fund load charges, and no sales commissions. It is virtually
expense-free.
You can safely ignore your portfolio between quarterly statements and
have
confidence that in the long run your assets will grow very
nicely.
For those who want to learn more about this kind of
investing, I recommend
the following two books: Bogle on Mutual Funds
by John Bogle, and The Bond Book
by
Annette Thau. Both are available in any good bookstore.
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